Pre-Market Scan · 2026-09-30

Take

Tape is soft and unconvinced: SPY -0.18% to 764.20 (still 6.2% above its 200 DMA, 719.25), QQQ +0.19% to 737.93 (10.7% above its 200 DMA), VIX 16.12. Fear & Greed is 29.2 (fear), down from 31.6 yesterday and 53.7 a month ago even as price sits near highs.
No open options to track today. Two stacked catalysts: August PCE at 8:30am ET (first inflation read since the 9/16 hike to 3.75-4.00%, feeds the 10/28 decision) and Micron AMC (moves the whole memory/semis complex your IREN and CCJ live next to). ACHR (1 sh, basis 5.57) is grinding toward its 10-day low of 5.02, last 5.06, down 2.69% today and already -9.2% on the position.
Chip names ripped into the MU print, not noise: AMAT +5.2%, KLAC +3.9%, ASML +3.6%, ARM +3.65%, CIEN +3.1%, LRCX +3.0% all popped the same session. Consensus wants $50.8B rev / $31.50 EPS on a guide of $50B±1B / $31±1, so the tape is betting the beat-and-raise cycle holds one more quarter.
Contradicts the clean 'risk-on' framing: Fear & Greed's breadth (0, extreme fear) and price-strength (0.2, extreme fear) subcomponents are pinned at the floor while SPY/QQQ sit double-digit percent above their 200 DMAs. That's the dispersion call from market-thesis.md (index fine, participation thin) still very much live, not resolved.

S&P 5007,671-0.17%

NASDAQ26,798-0.09%

Dow Jones51,350-0.26%

Bitcoin83,909+0.34%

Ethereum2,697+0.76%

Fear & Greed

29.2

fear

-2.5 vs prior close

Price strength0
Breadth0
Put / call18
VIX50

Earningsheld first, then watched, then size

MUMicron Technology, Inc.WATCH · AMC tonight · not out yet$1,065.08Guide is $50B rev / $31 EPS ±$1; Street's already above it at $50.8B / $31.50 with a Strong Buy consensus and a $1,509 target. AI memory pricing power is the number, a plain beat won't move it much.

Your bookpositions, basis and the tape

SPY

764.20

+6.2% vs 200 DMA 719.25

QQQ

737.93

+10.7% vs 200 DMA 666.70

VIX

16.12

calm under 20

Gate

OPEN

both above the 200, VIX under 20

Ticker	Sh	Price	Day	Basis	P&L
ACHR	1	5.06	-2.69%	5.57	-1 -9.2%
AMZN	2	246.67	+0.21%	8.96 *	475 +20.4%
CCJ	5	86.88	-0.18%	97.51	-53 -10.9%
IREN	10	41.38	-0.81%	51.86	-105 -20.2%
META	3.00	738.79	+3.24%	637.60	304 +15.7%
NFLX	6	70.30	+1.55%	63.44	41 -0.9%
SOFI	1	15.91	-0.13%	16.27	-0 -2.2%
SYM	100	41.51	-1.17%	42.64	-113 -11.7%
TTWO	4	202.78	+0.21%	237.37	-138 -14.6%
V	2.99	365.88	-0.51%	344.38	64 +6.0%
VST	10	140.83	+2.04%	153.06	-122 -2.9%

* Option credits exceed half the cost of that position, so true basis is real but its percentage return is not. P&L is every dollar including options and dividends; the small figure under it is the share move against broker basis.

Cash 1,278.75 as recorded. Confirm before sizing.

Your names on the fib band

ACHR$5.06past 61.8
61.8 · $5
50
38.2 · $6
7.0% below the 61.8% fib at $5.44
AMZN$246.6738.2 to 50 zone · 1.3% from $250
61.8 · $236
50
38.2 · $255
0.4% above the 50% fib at $245.67
CCJ$86.88past 61.8
61.8 · $102
50
38.2 · $113
14.4% below the 61.8% fib at $101.51
IREN$41.38past 61.8
61.8 · $45
50
38.2 · $55
7.8% below the 61.8% fib at $44.89
META$738.79above the band · 1.5% from $750
61.8 · $622
50
38.2 · $682
8.3% above the 38.2% fib at $682.28
NFLX$70.30past 61.8 · 0.4% from $70
61.8 · $82
50
38.2 · $92
14.1% below the 61.8% fib at $81.84
SOFI$15.91past 61.8
61.8 · $17
50
38.2 · $18
5.8% below the 61.8% fib at $16.89
SYM$41.51past 61.8
61.8 · $49
50
38.2 · $56
15.1% below the 61.8% fib at $48.91
TTWO$202.78past 61.8 · 1.4% from $200
61.8 · $221
50
38.2 · $238
8.3% below the 61.8% fib at $221.10
V$365.88above the band
61.8 · $329
50
38.2 · $351
4.4% above the 38.2% fib at $350.55
VST$140.83past 61.8
61.8 · $147
50
38.2 · $157
4.5% below the 61.8% fib at $147.44

Armed levelsradar-rules.md

Round number magnets

MSFT$500 magnet$508.96+1.8%
TSLA$350 magnet$352.84+0.8%
SPY$750 magnet$764.20+1.9%
QQQ$750 magnet$737.93-1.6%
PAYX$100 magnet$99.31-0.7%
APP$300 magnet$305.66+1.9%
HUBS$200 magnet$197.67-1.2%
KMI$30 magnet$30.45+1.5%

Dip radar, AI infrastructure

FCX1.1% from $70$70.79-1.6%
ANET1.4% from $200$202.86-1.0%
STX1.5% from $900$913.45-0.9%
DELL1.9% from $550$539.59-0.7%
EME1.6% from $750$762.03-0.5%
CRDO3.0% from the 50% fib (198.39)$192.35-0.2%
AMD1.3% from $600$607.57-0.1%
WDC0.8% from $450$453.48+0.1%
CSCO3.5% from the 50% fib (103.34)$106.94+0.2%
JCI0.4% from $150$149.42+0.4%
FIX1.2% from the 50% fib (1686.16); 0.9% from $1650$1,665.05+0.4%
EQIX2.9% from the 50% fib (1046.03); 1.5% from $1000$1,015.27+0.4%

28 names flagged, showing the 12 weakest. The rest are round-number proximity only.

TARGETS on the fib ladder

Left is the deepest discount off the 52-week high. The dot is where the tape sits.

Hidden: BRK.B, GE, MA, MMM are above the band, so not buyable here. TTWO, VST already held, shown on the book rail.

NEENextEra Energy$75.89past 61.8
61.8 · $79
50
38.2 · $87
4.2% below the 61.8% fib at $79.25
COSTCostco$924.59past 61.8
61.8 · $940
50
38.2 · $1,000
1.7% below the 61.8% fib at $940.49
WFCWells Fargo$80.48past 61.8
61.8 · $82
50
38.2 · $88
1.6% below the 61.8% fib at $81.80
LMTLockheed Martin$512.21past 61.8
61.8 · $518
50
38.2 · $584
1.1% below the 61.8% fib at $517.79 · crossed the 61.8% down since the last scan
ULTAUlta Beauty$547.89past 61.8
61.8 · $552
50
38.2 · $615
0.8% below the 61.8% fib at $552.45
CINFCincinnati Financial$161.1338.2 to 50 zone
61.8 · $155
50
38.2 · $162
0.8% below the 38.2% fib at $162.47
QCOMQualcomm$184.1050 to 61.8 zone
61.8 · $175
50
38.2 · $207
3.6% below the 50% fib at $190.96
AVGOBroadcom$355.1038.2 to 50 zone
61.8 · $321
50
38.2 · $371
2.5% above the 50% fib at $346.27

Abnormal movers504 names scanned

CCLCarnival CorporationShipping · 4.0x normal$25.11+13.4%Record Q3 print, raised guidance, ~$2B returned to shareholders.
FICOFICOServices · 3.9x normal$617.87-26.5%Down on a Rosen Law Firm securities class-action investigation stacked on an already-battered stock.
AIGAmerican International GroupInsurance · 2.9x normal$75.27+3.4%No single hard catalyst found; move tracks the back-up in long yields (insurers benefit) plus recent management updates.
RCLRoyal Caribbean GroupShipping · 2.8x normal$260.67+7.5%Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy on the $3B Sandals & Beaches resort stake; BofA and JPMorgan followed with target hikes on the ~40% EBITDA margin resort exposure.
PNWPinnacle West CapitalUtilities · 2.7x normal$93.40+2.3%
ITWIllinois Tool WorksMachinery · 2.4x normal$267.07-2.5%
WYNNWynn ResortsTravel · 2.2x normal$78.23-2.8%
LNTAlliant EnergyUtilities · 2.1x normal$64.34+1.8%
MDTMedtronicBiotech · 2.1x normal$87.09-2.7%
HSYThe Hershey CompanyFood · 2.1x normal$161.41-1.8%

At / near a 52-week lowwithin 3%

CSRACSRA · 0.0% above the low$24.46-0.8%low $24.46
WYWeyerhaeuserREIT · 0.2% above the low$19.55-0.9%low $19.51
HDHome DepotRetail · 0.2% above the low$288.04-0.6%low $287.34
ORealty IncomeREIT · 0.4% above the low$55.14-0.4%low $54.94
DECKDeckers BrandsApparel · 0.4% above the low$77.68-0.9%low $77.37
NRGNRG EnergyUtilities · 0.5% above the low$97.17+0.2%low $96.73
HSYThe Hershey CompanyFood · 0.5% above the low$161.41-1.8%low $160.61
FISFIS (company)Services · 0.5% above the low$33.35-2.8%low $33.18
LOWLowe'sRetail · 0.5% above the low$187.26-0.2%low $186.30
CHTRCharter CommunicationsMedia · 0.7% above the low$110.67-0.7%low $109.96
LVSLas Vegas SandsTravel · 0.7% above the low$38.32-1.2%low $38.06
XYLXylem Inc.Industrials · 0.8% above the low$100.930.0%low $100.17

Market newssince the 06:00 report

Nothing new since the 06:00 report.

Congressequities only, bonds dropped

No committee-correlated equity trade in the window.

What's comingfrom economic-calendar.md

August PCE / Personal Income and Outlays date estimated Whole book, rates. Consensus +0.4% headline / +0.3% core MoM, ~3.8% / ~3.4% YoY vs July 3.7% / 3.3%. First inflation print since the 9/16 hike to 3.75-4.00% (12-0, 16 of 18 see one more in 2026). Feeds the 10/28 hike decision	Wed Sep 30 8:30am ET today
Micron fiscal Q4 earnings date estimated No position. Semis/AI-capex read-through, stacked on PCE the same day. Moves INTC, the memory complex, and whole-book beta	Wed Sep 30 AMC today
September jobs report / nonfarm payrolls date estimated Whole book. August printed +162K, unemployment 4.1%	Fri Oct 2 8:30am ET in 2 days
NFLX Q3 earnings Held 6 sh. Wells Fargo Underweight $57 (9/18) and HSBC Hold $76 (9/22) both cite engagement, so engagement is the number	Tue Oct 20 AMC in 20 days
October FOMC decision, no SEP Whole book	Tue Oct 27 to 10-28 (Tue-Wed) 2pm ET in 27 days
US midterm elections Whole book. VIX Nov-18 future already prices this at 20.03 vs 14.89 spot	Tue Nov 3 in 34 days