Tape is dead calm on the surface, SPY flat at 778 and still 7.5% clear of its 200dma, QQQ -0.33%, VIX 15.33. Fear-and-greed reads a neutral 45 but that number is hiding the split, momentum sits at 68 (greed) while breadth and price-strength are both pinned at extreme fear (8-10), the index is fine and most of the stocks under it are not.
No held name forces a decision before the bell and there's no open options book to babysit. TTWO is the one to watch, down 4% yesterday and sitting dead on the $200 round number after Wells Fargo trimmed its estimates on basketball and mobile weakness (still Overweight, $300 target). NFLX earnings land Tuesday 10/20, that's 4 trading days out, now inside the window.
Bank earnings and ASML are the real action. JNJ, C and WFC all beat estimates and all sold off, JNJ -4.7% to -6.8% intraday on a 2027 patent-cliff worry and falling adjusted profit despite the raise, C -5.6% on revenue and ROTCE actually declining QoQ, WFC -3.1% on rising credit-loss provisions. Beats don't matter when the trend underneath them is worse.
ASML raised its FY26 sales guide on AI demand and still traded down pre-market, because management flagged 2027-28 lithography supply falling short of that same demand. That's a capacity story, not a demand miss, and it's dragging AMAT (-6.7% yesterday) with it. Worth tracking the semis-equipment group for a better entry if one of them ever lands on the radar.
S&P 5007,805-0.02%
NASDAQ27,204-0.15%
Dow Jones51,670-0.35%
Bitcoin83,426+0.40%
Ethereum2,503+0.27%
Fear & Greed
45.1
neutral
+0.3 vs prior close
Price strength11
Breadth8
Put / call33
VIX50
Earningsheld first, then watched, then size
ASMLASML Holding N.V.WATCH· BMO · not out yet$1,717.76Reports today BMO. Raised FY26 sales guide on AI demand but warned 2027-28 lithography capacity won't keep up, pre-market traded down on the supply warning, not the guide.
* Option credits exceed half the cost of that position, so true basis is real but its percentage return is not. P&L is every dollar including options and dividends; the small figure under it is the share move against broker basis.
ASML flags 2027-28 lithography supply shortfall even as it raises FY26 guide Direct read on the semis-equipment group (AMAT -6.7%) and on AI-capex capacity constraints CNBC
Take-Two slides as Wells Fargo trims estimates on basketball and mobile weakness, keeps $300 target Held name, explains yesterday's 4% drop and the sit on the $200 round number 24/7 Wall St.
Futures edge higher ahead of September CPI and more bank earnings Inflation print due today, whole-book rates risk, not yet in the economic calendar file Yahoo Finance
Congressequities only, bonds dropped
No committee-correlated equity trade in the window.
What's comingfrom economic-calendar.md
NFLX Q3 earnings
Held 6 sh. Wells Fargo Underweight $57 (9/18) and HSBC Hold $76 (9/22) both cite engagement, so engagement is the number
Tue Oct 20 AMC in 6 days
October FOMC decision, no SEP
Whole book
Tue Oct 27 to 10-28 (Tue-Wed) 2pm ET in 13 days
US midterm elections
Whole book. VIX Nov-18 future already prices this at 20.03 vs 14.89 spot
Tue Nov 3 in 20 days
TTWO fiscal Q2 earnings
Held 4 sh, GTA VI event hold. Last scheduled shot at a pre-order number before the 11/19 launch