Pre-Market Scan · 2026-10-16

Take

Regime gate is open and comfortable: SPY and QQQ both sit well above their 200dmas and VIX is down 2% to 16.13, but Fear & Greed is stuck at 32 ('fear') with stock price strength (11.8) and breadth (13.4) both in 'extreme fear' — the index is grinding to new highs on a narrowing bench of stocks.
NFLX (held 6sh, true basis $63.44) reports Tue AMC, 3 trading sessions out. Netflix just cut 1,000 jobs (6% of staff) and swapped content chief Bajaria for ex-Disney's Peter Rice, with US churn up for a 7th straight quarter (+16.6%). The engagement number Wells Fargo ($57 UW) and HSBC ($76 Hold) are calling out is now a live pre-print story, not just an analyst thesis.
IREN (held 10sh, true basis $51.86, -41.4%) is sitting a buck above the $30 round number after two brutal sessions: Gartner warned 80%+ of neocloud providers could fold by 2030, CoreWeave's bond yields spiked, and a shelved AI-datacenter IPO stacked on rising hike odds. Today's flat print (30.39, -0.6%) reads like stabilization, not a reversal — watch $30.
MRSH (+4.6%, EPS beat 2.03 vs 1.96 est) and IP (+6.9%, DS Smith stake-sale/EMEA bid interest) are the two abnormal movers with a confirmed driver. HLT, HST and MAR also ripped 3-5% in the same travel/REIT basket with nothing in the feed to explain it cleanly — call that noise until proven otherwise.
market-thesis.md's 9/30 update called the hike the new base case after the 30Y blew through 5.33%. This morning the 10Y is back to 5.09% off this week's 5.3% peak, and Warsh declined to signal an October hike — the hawkish-escalation leg of the thesis needs a rates gut-check, not a full retire.

S&P 5007,744+0.33%

NASDAQ26,713+0.08%

Dow Jones52,178+1.08%

Bitcoin82,545+0.49%

Ethereum2,475+1.43%

Fear & Greed

32.1

fear

+0.5 vs prior close

Price strength12
Breadth13
Put / call23
VIX50

Earningsheld first, then watched, then size

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.WATCH · TBD yesterday · beat · EPS 4.60 vs 4.45 est (+3.4%)$422.25Beat on EPS (4.60 vs 4.45 est, +3.4% surprise), but the stock is still trading inside today's chip dip-radar cluster — an AI-capex beat isn't buying semis a bid right now.
SCHWThe Charles Schwab Corporation · TBD yesterday · beat · EPS 1.69 vs 1.66 est (+1.8%)
PLDPrologis, Inc. · TBD yesterday · beat · EPS 1.60 vs 1.58 est (+1.3%)
HDBHDFC Bank Limited · TBD · not out yet
IBNICICI Bank Limited · TBD · not out yet

Your bookpositions, basis and the tape

SPY

771.79

+6.5% vs 200 DMA 724.63

QQQ

728.00

+7.9% vs 200 DMA 674.46

VIX

16.13

calm under 20

Gate

OPEN

both above the 200, VIX under 20

Ticker	Sh	Price	Day	Basis	P&L
ACHR	1	4.27	+4.91%	5.57	-1 -23.3%
AMZN	2	254.76	+0.27%	8.96 *	492 +24.3%
AVGO	1	344.33	-0.55%	363.87	-20 -5.4%
BA	5	188.73	+2.20%	148.30	202 -0.8%
CCJ	5	83.23	+2.16%	97.51	-71 -14.6%
IREN	10	30.39	-0.56%	51.86	-215 -41.4%
META	2.00	736.72	-0.11%	637.17	200 +15.4%
NFLX	6	72.61	+2.89%	63.44	55 +2.4%
SOFI	1	15.09	+6.12%	16.27	-1 -7.2%
SYM	100	39.76	+4.91%	42.64	-288 -15.4%
TTWO	4	209.38	+4.05%	237.37	-112 -11.8%
V	2.01	399.75	+2.13%	343.94	112 +15.8%
VST	10	154.17	+1.57%	153.06	11 +6.3%

* Option credits exceed half the cost of that position, so true basis is real but its percentage return is not. P&L is every dollar including options and dividends; the small figure under it is the share move against broker basis.

Cash 1,098.28 as recorded. Confirm before sizing.

Your names on the fib band

ACHR$4.27past 61.8
61.8 · $5
50
38.2 · $6
18.5% below the 61.8% fib at $5.24
AMZN$254.7650 to 61.8 zone · 1.9% from $250
61.8 · $249
50
38.2 · $264
0.6% below the 50% fib at $256.38
AVGO$344.33past 61.8 · 1.6% from $350
61.8 · $396
50
38.2 · $434
13.0% below the 61.8% fib at $395.88
BA$188.73past 61.8
61.8 · $207
50
38.2 · $221
8.6% below the 61.8% fib at $206.56
CCJ$83.23past 61.8
61.8 · $99
50
38.2 · $111
15.7% below the 61.8% fib at $98.67
IREN$30.39past 61.8 · 1.3% from $30
61.8 · $43
50
38.2 · $54
30.1% below the 61.8% fib at $43.45
META$736.72above the band · 1.8% from $750
61.8 · $622
50
38.2 · $682
8.0% above the 38.2% fib at $682.28
NFLX$72.61past 61.8
61.8 · $78
50
38.2 · $86
6.8% below the 61.8% fib at $77.94
SOFI$15.09past 61.8
61.8 · $16
50
38.2 · $18
7.2% below the 61.8% fib at $16.26
SYM$39.76past 61.8 · 0.6% from $40
61.8 · $48
50
38.2 · $55
17.4% below the 61.8% fib at $48.16
TTWO$209.38past 61.8
61.8 · $223
50
38.2 · $239
6.1% below the 61.8% fib at $222.90
V$399.75above the band · 0.1% from $400
61.8 · $342
50
38.2 · $366
9.4% above the 38.2% fib at $365.50
VST$154.1738.2 to 50 zone
61.8 · $147
50
38.2 · $157
1.4% above the 50% fib at $152.01

Armed levelsradar-rules.md

Round number magnets

MSFT$550 magnet$539.44-1.9%
GOOG$350 magnet$344.91-1.4%
JNJ$250 magnet$253.28+1.3%
BMY$60 magnet$60.57+0.9%
OXY$60 magnet$60.67+1.1%
PFE$30 magnet$29.44-1.9%

Dip radar, AI infrastructure

HPEDown 7.1% on the day$58.63-7.1%
DELLDown 6.8% on the day$473.39-6.8%
PSTGDown 5.7% on the day$133.40-5.7%
ANETDown 5.0% on the day$185.58-5.0%
COHR0.2% from $250; down 4.8% on the day$250.60-4.8%
NVTDown 4.6% on the day$145.73-4.6%
ENTG0.0% from the 50% fib (146.93); down 4.1% on the day$146.87-4.1%
FIX1.2% from $1500$1,481.27-3.9%
CSCO2.2% from the 50% fib (107.48)$109.85-3.3%
STX1.3% from $700$690.81-3.2%
JCI1.2% from the 50% fib (145.87); 1.6% from $150$147.63-3.2%
LITE0.1% from the 50% fib (868.92)$869.54-3.0%

36 names flagged, showing the 12 weakest. The rest are round-number proximity only.

TARGETS on the fib ladder

Left is the deepest discount off the 52-week high. The dot is where the tape sits.

Hidden: CAT, CINF, GE, GS, MMM are above the band, so not buyable here. AVGO, BA, TTWO, VST already held, shown on the book rail.

AXPAmerican Express$313.87past 61.8
61.8 · $325
50
38.2 · $349
3.4% below the 61.8% fib at $324.86
NEENextEra Energy$78.96past 61.8
61.8 · $79
50
38.2 · $87
0.4% below the 61.8% fib at $79.25
WFCWells Fargo$82.7550 to 61.8 zone
61.8 · $82
50
38.2 · $88
1.2% above the 61.8% fib at $81.80 · crossed the 61.8% up since the last scan
QCOMQualcomm$178.4050 to 61.8 zone
61.8 · $175
50
38.2 · $207
2.1% above the 61.8% fib at $174.68 · crossed the 61.8% up since the last scan
LMTLockheed Martin$532.6450 to 61.8 zone
61.8 · $518
50
38.2 · $584
2.9% above the 61.8% fib at $517.79
COSTCostco$978.0138.2 to 50 zone
61.8 · $940
50
38.2 · $1,000
0.8% above the 50% fib at $970.28
ULTAUlta Beauty$609.2438.2 to 50 zone
61.8 · $552
50
38.2 · $615
0.9% below the 38.2% fib at $614.52

Abnormal movers502 names scanned

MRSHMarsh McLennanInsurance · 3.5x normal$186.54+4.6%Q3 EPS beat, 2.03 vs 1.96 est (+3.6% surprise).
HLTHilton WorldwideTravel · 3.4x normal$342.98+4.6%
IPInternational PaperPaper · 3.3x normal$34.10+6.9%Up on reports it's weighing a DS Smith stake sale alongside its packaging spinoff, plus EMEA packaging bid interest.
HSTHost Hotels & ResortsREIT · 3.2x normal$23.85+4.0%
MARMarriott InternationalTravel · 3.2x normal$385.71+3.7%
WMWaste Management, Inc.Utilities · 3.1x normal$224.19+3.9%
KMBKimberly-ClarkPackaging · 3.1x normal$104.07+4.7%
WTWWillis Towers WatsonInsurance · 3.1x normal$310.36+4.5%
SPGIS&P GlobalFinance · 3.1x normal$424.81+4.0%
TTDThe Trade DeskSoftware · 3.0x normal$13.13+7.8%
EFXEquifaxFinance · 3.0x normal$161.26+7.2%
BLKBlackRockFinance · 3.0x normal$1,120.78+4.4%
VMCVulcan Materials CompanyMining · 3.0x normal$252.40+4.4%
MCOMoody's CorporationFinance · 3.0x normal$483.69+4.5%
AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.Insurance · 3.0x normal$250.10+5.5%
WMBWilliams CompaniesEnergy · 2.9x normal$69.22-4.9%
KVUEKenvueConsumer · 2.9x normal$18.67+3.7%
NKENike, Inc.Apparel · 2.9x normal$37.14+5.2%
EBAYEBayServices · 2.9x normal$122.91+5.2%
CPRTCopartRetail · 2.8x normal$27.75+5.6%
MLMMartin Marietta MaterialsMining · 2.8x normal$491.23+4.3%
DECKDeckers BrandsApparel · 2.8x normal$86.58+4.5%
NOWServiceNowSoftware · 2.7x normal$148.57+6.1%
LULULululemonApparel · 2.7x normal$99.09+5.3%

At / near a 52-week lowwithin 3%

CSRACSRA · 1.9% above the low$24.84+0.1%low $24.39
MAAMid-America Apartment CommunitiesREIT · 2.0% above the low$116.27+0.6%low $113.95
NXPNXPFinance · 2.5% above the low$13.19+1.5%low $12.87
MGMMGM ResortsTravel · 2.6% above the low$29.48+1.8%low $28.72
MOSThe Mosaic CompanyAgriculture · 2.9% above the low$18.95-0.3%low $18.41
TKOTKO Group HoldingsConsumer · 3.0% above the low$176.02+2.1%low $170.92

Market newssince the 06:00 report

Netflix cuts 1,000 jobs, swaps content chief days before Q3 print US churn up 16.6% for a 7th straight quarter; held position reports Tue AMC GuruFocus
IREN extends slide on neocloud credit-stress warning Gartner sees 80%+ of neocloud providers folding by 2030, CoreWeave bond yields spiked, held position down 41% Benzinga
10Y pulls back to 5.09% off this week's 5.3% peak as Warsh skips a hawkish signal Softens the 'hike is base case' read from the thesis's 9/30 update Invezz

Congressequities only, bonds dropped

No committee-correlated equity trade in the window.

What's comingfrom economic-calendar.md

NFLX Q3 earnings Held 6 sh. Wells Fargo Underweight $57 (9/18) and HSBC Hold $76 (9/22) both cite engagement, so engagement is the number	Tue Oct 20 AMC in 4 days
October FOMC decision, no SEP Whole book	Tue Oct 27 to 10-28 (Tue-Wed) 2pm ET in 11 days
US midterm elections Whole book. VIX Nov-18 future already prices this at 20.03 vs 14.89 spot	Tue Nov 3 in 18 days
TTWO fiscal Q2 earnings Held 4 sh, GTA VI event hold. Last scheduled shot at a pre-order number before the 11/19 launch	Mon Nov 9 in 24 days