Regime gate stays open, SPY 6.0% and QQQ 10.8% above their 200-DMAs with VIX at 16.4, but Fear & Greed sits at 30 (fear) with stock-price-breadth at 0 and strength at 0.6, so the index is being carried by a handful of names, not broad participation.
Nothing in the book has a print, fib break, or stop in reach before tomorrow's open; V is the only name testing anything, a fresh 10-day low 2.5% above its 38.2% retrace (350.55) and 2.67% above $350. September jobs lands Fri 8:30am ET, whole-book, highest-signal print of the week.
VST is tracking the thesis script exactly: the 9/30 update flagged it as the direct equity expression of the 30Y's break above 5.33% and said it 'gives it all back first,' it's sitting at 138.35 now, basically pinned where it was three sessions ago just above the 130 weekly-close stop.
BE (not held) is down 4.9% today after a +20% five-session run on the Pelosi disclosure and S&P 500 add, a real giveback on a name with an actual paper trail behind it, not noise.
No new contradiction beyond what's already logged 9/30: the hike and the 30Y break are real, equities just haven't priced it outside of VST yet.
* Option credits exceed half the cost of that position, so true basis is real but its percentage return is not. P&L is every dollar including options and dividends; the small figure under it is the share move against broker basis.
MKCMcCormick & CompanyFood· 3.3x normal$46.40-4.1%Reaffirmed FY2026 outlook and 190bp gross margin expansion, but a special charge hit EPS, stock down 4.1% on the charge, not the operating trend.
JBLJabilTech· 3.2x normal$286.86-10.0%Beat Q4 and raised FY27 revenue guide to $44.5B (+24%), but margin guide only improves 30bp to 6.1% with FY27 back-end loaded and execution risk on $8.5B of capacity growth, down 10.0% on margin skepticism despite the beat.
GISGeneral MillsFood· 2.9x normal$32.16-4.9%Announced Dana McNabb as CEO, the company's first female chief, down 4.9% alongside a still-weak demand backdrop.