Tape is fine on the surface but rotten underneath: SPY and QQQ both sit 8-12% above their 200dma with VIX only 15.47, yet Fear & Greed's breadth components read extreme fear (stock price strength 5.4, breadth 3.2) against greed-level momentum (72.8) - a handful of names carrying the index.
AMZN ripped 3.29% on a WSJ report Amazon is in talks to buy AI startup Decart for ~$7B, and that move put it right on top of the 38.2% fib (263.65 vs 262.43 spot) - call it resistance, not a breakout yet.
V also broke out, +2.76% to within 0.4% of its 52-week high (386.84) and 3.6% off $400 round number, with Q4 earnings landing 10/27 - same day as the FOMC decision.
Telecom got gutted (T -10.8%, VZ -10.1%, TMUS -13.3%) while tower REITs ripped (CCI +15.6%, AMT +9.3%, SBAC +7.3%) on the SpaceX Starlink/spectrum deal - clean sector trade-off, zero exposure either side, not actionable here.
S&P 5007,812+0.59%
NASDAQ27,366+0.64%
Dow Jones51,655+0.83%
Bitcoin83,291-0.46%
Ethereum2,542+0.27%
Fear & Greed
45.0
fear
0.0 vs prior close
Price strength5
Breadth3
Put / call35
VIX50
Earningsheld first, then watched, then size
Nobody in your universe or the bellwether list reports today.
* Option credits exceed half the cost of that position, so true basis is real but its percentage return is not. P&L is every dollar including options and dividends; the small figure under it is the share move against broker basis.
TMUST-Mobile USTelecom· 4.0x normal$148.58-13.3%Down 13.3%, same driver; Raymond James upgraded to Outperform same day but the Starlink overhang dominated
Amazon in talks to acquire AI startup Decart for ~$7 billion Direct driver of AMZN's 3.3% move today, held position now testing the 38.2% fib as resistance Yahoo Finance / WSJ
Congressequities only, bonds dropped
No committee-correlated equity trade in the window.
What's comingfrom economic-calendar.md
NFLX Q3 earnings
Held 6 sh. Wells Fargo Underweight $57 (9/18) and HSBC Hold $76 (9/22) both cite engagement, so engagement is the number
Tue Oct 20 AMC in 8 days
October FOMC decision, no SEP
Whole book
Tue Oct 27 to 10-28 (Tue-Wed) 2pm ET in 15 days
US midterm elections
Whole book. VIX Nov-18 future already prices this at 20.03 vs 14.89 spot
Tue Nov 3 in 22 days
TTWO fiscal Q2 earnings
Held 4 sh, GTA VI event hold. Last scheduled shot at a pre-order number before the 11/19 launch