Pre-Market Scan · 2026-10-09

Take

SPY -0.42%, QQQ -1.34% on an OpenAI-revenue-doubt selloff that hit chips and AI-datacenter names hard while VIX barely moved (15.18) and fear-and-greed sits at 38 'fear' despite SPY still 7% above its 200dma; that's the thesis's dispersion-not-direction read playing out again, not a regime break.
No open options to track today. VST (-6.35%) is landing almost exactly on its 38.2% fib (156.57, 0.27% away) with the broad AI-capex-doubt rout as the driver, not company news; IREN (-7.7%, held 10 sh, already down 31% on true basis) has its own problem on top of that rout, reports of multi-day power outages and operational failures at its BC data centers.
The OpenAI annualized revenue run-rate came in near $50B versus prior ~$70B estimates, dragging the whole AI-datacenter basket together (COHR -9.6%, ALAB -9.2%, CRWV -7.8%, NBIS -7.3%), so most of today's IREN weakness is sector, but the BC reliability story is IREN-specific and the one that actually needs a decision.
market-thesis.md (9/30) frames VST as the book's direct expression of the 30Y-5.33% buyback-failure trade; today VST is selling on an AI-capex-conversion scare instead, meaning two separate risk factors are now hitting the same position and the thesis needs to say which one is driving it next refresh.
Money rotated into insurers today (CB, TRV, WRB, CINF, MET, L, AFL, GL all up) as it came out of chips and datacenter names, a classic defensive-rotation tell on a risk-off day.

S&P 5007,765-0.47%

NASDAQ27,193-1.25%

Dow Jones51,232+0.10%

Bitcoin83,151+1.81%

Ethereum2,503+1.25%

Fear & Greed

38.1

fear

+0.2 vs prior close

Price strength3
Breadth3
Put / call31
VIX50

Earningsheld first, then watched, then size

PEPPepsico, Inc.WATCH · TBD yesterday · beat · EPS 2.34 vs 2.29 est (+2.2%)$128.34Beat EPS 2.34 vs 2.29 (+2.2% surprise) but cut full-year profit guidance and is raising €1B in debt a day later; market net-net rewarded the cost-cutting plan over the guide cut.

Your bookpositions, basis and the tape

SPY

773.93

+7.1% vs 200 DMA 722.46

QQQ

747.58

+11.3% vs 200 DMA 671.52

VIX

15.18

calm under 20

Gate

OPEN

both above the 200, VIX under 20

Ticker	Sh	Price	Day	Basis	P&L
ACHR	1	4.72	+1.07%	5.57	-1 -15.3%
AMZN	2	254.06	-2.25%	8.96 *	490 +24.0%
BA	5	187.75	-0.30%	161.30	132 -1.3%
CCJ	5	87.12	-2.19%	97.51	-52 -10.7%
IREN	10	35.71	-7.70%	51.86	-162 -31.1%
META	3.00	720.89	-0.06%	637.60	250 +12.9%
NFLX	6	71.57	+2.68%	63.44	49 +0.9%
SOFI	1	15.61	-0.32%	16.27	-1 -4.1%
SYM	100	42.06	-2.89%	42.64	-58 -10.5%
TTWO	4	209.37	+2.63%	237.37	-112 -11.8%
V	2.99	375.10	+0.81%	344.38	92 +8.6%
VST	10	156.14	-6.35%	153.06	31 +7.6%

* Option credits exceed half the cost of that position, so true basis is real but its percentage return is not. P&L is every dollar including options and dividends; the small figure under it is the share move against broker basis.

Cash 998.06 as recorded. Confirm before sizing.

Your names on the fib band

ACHR$4.72past 61.8
61.8 · $5
50
38.2 · $6
13.2% below the 61.8% fib at $5.44
AMZN$254.0650 to 61.8 zone · 1.6% from $250
61.8 · $249
50
38.2 · $264
0.9% below the 50% fib at $256.38
BA$187.75past 61.8
61.8 · $207
50
38.2 · $221
9.3% below the 61.8% fib at $206.95
CCJ$87.12past 61.8
61.8 · $102
50
38.2 · $113
14.2% below the 61.8% fib at $101.51
IREN$35.71past 61.8
61.8 · $45
50
38.2 · $55
20.4% below the 61.8% fib at $44.89
META$720.89above the band
61.8 · $622
50
38.2 · $682
5.7% above the 38.2% fib at $682.28
NFLX$71.57past 61.8
61.8 · $82
50
38.2 · $92
12.6% below the 61.8% fib at $81.84
SOFI$15.61past 61.8
61.8 · $17
50
38.2 · $18
7.6% below the 61.8% fib at $16.89
SYM$42.06past 61.8
61.8 · $49
50
38.2 · $56
14.0% below the 61.8% fib at $48.91
TTWO$209.37past 61.8
61.8 · $222
50
38.2 · $239
5.6% below the 61.8% fib at $221.80
V$375.10above the band
61.8 · $334
50
38.2 · $354
6.0% above the 38.2% fib at $353.78
VST$156.1438.2 to 50 zone
61.8 · $147
50
38.2 · $157
0.3% below the 38.2% fib at $156.57

Armed levelsradar-rules.md

Round number magnets

GOOG$350 magnet$344.86-1.5%
QQQ$750 magnet$747.58-0.3%
BMY$60 magnet$59.58-0.7%
OXY$60 magnet$60.28+0.5%
NOK$10 magnet$10.14+1.4%

Dip radar, AI infrastructure

AAOIDown 13.6% on the day$105.90-13.6%
COHR0.8% from $300; down 9.6% on the day$302.35-9.6%
ALAB0.8% from $350; down 9.2% on the day$347.05-9.2%
CRWV2.0% from $80; down 7.8% on the day$81.58-7.8%
IRENDown 7.7% on the day$35.71-7.7%
NBIS1.6% from the 50% fib (216.28); down 7.3% on the day$219.71-7.3%
CIFRDown 7.3% on the day$13.50-7.3%
ARMDown 6.5% on the day$275.29-6.5%
VST2.7% from the 50% fib (152.01); down 6.3% on the day$156.14-6.3%
BEDown 6.3% on the day$272.82-6.3%
OKLODown 6.1% on the day$34.57-6.1%
LITE0.1% from $1050; down 5.6% on the day$1,048.60-5.6%

42 names flagged, showing the 12 weakest. The rest are round-number proximity only.

TARGETS on the fib ladder

Left is the deepest discount off the 52-week high. The dot is where the tape sits.

Hidden: BRK.B, GS, MA are above the band, so not buyable here. BA, TTWO, VST already held, shown on the book rail.

NEENextEra Energy$77.37past 61.8
61.8 · $79
50
38.2 · $87
2.4% below the 61.8% fib at $79.25
LMTLockheed Martin$507.89past 61.8
61.8 · $518
50
38.2 · $584
1.9% below the 61.8% fib at $517.79
WFCWells Fargo$82.0350 to 61.8 zone
61.8 · $82
50
38.2 · $88
0.3% above the 61.8% fib at $81.80 · crossed the 61.8% up since the last scan
QCOMQualcomm$176.0150 to 61.8 zone
61.8 · $175
50
38.2 · $207
0.8% above the 61.8% fib at $174.68
COSTCostco$947.9250 to 61.8 zone
61.8 · $940
50
38.2 · $1,000
0.8% above the 61.8% fib at $940.49
ULTAUlta Beauty$564.2150 to 61.8 zone
61.8 · $552
50
38.2 · $615
2.1% above the 61.8% fib at $552.45 · crossed the 61.8% up since the last scan
MMM3M$163.58above the band
61.8 · $154
50
38.2 · $163
0.4% above the 38.2% fib at $162.87 · crossed the 38.2% up since the last scan
CINFCincinnati Financial$165.25above the band
61.8 · $155
50
38.2 · $162
1.7% above the 38.2% fib at $162.47 · crossed the 38.2% up since the last scan
GEGE Aerospace$305.62above the band
61.8 · $277
50
38.2 · $304
0.5% above the 38.2% fib at $304.07 · crossed the 38.2% up since the last scan
AVGOBroadcom$360.1438.2 to 50 zone
61.8 · $321
50
38.2 · $371
3.0% below the 38.2% fib at $371.07 · crossed the 38.2% down since the last scan

Abnormal movers502 names scanned

SAICSAICSoftware · 3.2x normal$129.71+6.2%Acquired Information Security Corp (zero-trust, post-quantum crypto) on 10/5; deal is still driving the bid.
CSGPCoStar GroupREIT · 3.0x normal$29.81+8.0%Follow-through buying after GF Value called it undervalued post-rally; no new single catalyst today.
PEPPepsiCoBeverages · 2.9x normal$128.34+3.7%EPS beat and a new cost-reduction plan offsetting Tuesday's lowered full-year profit guide.
EGEverest GroupInsurance · 2.8x normal$373.10+3.0%No company-specific news; riding the broad rotation into insurers.
STZConstellation BrandsBeverages · 2.8x normal$123.63+4.4%
CBChubb LimitedInsurance · 2.8x normal$343.78+2.7%
WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationInsurance · 2.7x normal$72.05+3.3%
LOWLowe'sRetail · 2.6x normal$188.85+4.0%
KOThe Coca-Cola CompanyBeverages · 2.5x normal$87.77+2.3%
CMGChipotle Mexican GrillRestaurants · 2.5x normal$32.68+6.2%
EBAYEBayServices · 2.5x normal$111.98+4.1%
METMetLifeInsurance · 2.4x normal$98.47+2.8%
LLoews CorporationInsurance · 2.4x normal$107.60+1.8%
SJMThe J.M. Smucker CompanyFood · 2.4x normal$119.41+3.0%
INVHInvitation HomesREIT · 2.4x normal$26.48+2.4%
CINFCincinnati FinancialInsurance · 2.3x normal$165.25+2.2%
LDOSLeidosSoftware · 2.3x normal$119.22+5.0%
RTXRTX CorporationAerospace · 2.3x normal$184.32+2.2%
TRVThe Travelers CompaniesInsurance · 2.3x normal$370.27+2.7%
HDHome DepotRetail · 2.3x normal$295.47+3.4%
AFLAflacFinance · 2.2x normal$114.94+1.9%
ULTAUlta BeautyRetail · 2.2x normal$564.21+3.4%
GLGlobe LifeInsurance · 2.2x normal$166.08+1.6%
PCARPaccarAutos · 2.2x normal$109.66+2.6%

At / near a 52-week lowwithin 3%

HRLHormel FoodsStaples · 0.3% above the low$19.42-0.7%low $19.37
MOSThe Mosaic CompanyAgriculture · 0.5% above the low$19.73-1.2%low $19.63
CSRACSRA · 0.9% above the low$24.61+0.5%low $24.39
NXPNXPFinance · 1.2% above the low$13.02-0.8%low $12.87
CPTCamden Property TrustREIT · 1.5% above the low$96.76+1.0%low $95.30
BSXBoston ScientificMedical · 1.6% above the low$42.04+1.1%low $41.39
VICIVici PropertiesREIT · 1.6% above the low$22.79+0.7%low $22.42
TDGTransDigm GroupDefense · 1.7% above the low$1,089.30-0.6%low $1,071.25
WYNNWynn ResortsTravel · 1.8% above the low$75.29+0.4%low $73.98
TXTTextronAerospace · 1.9% above the low$73.22+0.3%low $71.87
UDRUDR, Inc.REIT · 1.9% above the low$33.57+0.8%low $32.94
ORealty IncomeREIT · 1.9% above the low$54.17+1.5%low $53.15

Market newssince the 06:00 report

OpenAI's annualized revenue run-rate reported near $50B, well under prior ~$70B estimates Reignited doubt on AI capex conversion, driving the semis/AI-datacenter complex and the Nasdaq lower today Saxo Bank
IREN under pressure on reports of multi-day power outages and reliability failures at its BC data centers Company-specific execution risk on top of the sector-wide AI-capex selloff, directly relevant to the held 10-share position Motley Fool

Congressequities only, bonds dropped

No committee-correlated equity trade in the window.

What's comingfrom economic-calendar.md

NFLX Q3 earnings Held 6 sh. Wells Fargo Underweight $57 (9/18) and HSBC Hold $76 (9/22) both cite engagement, so engagement is the number	Tue Oct 20 AMC in 11 days
October FOMC decision, no SEP Whole book	Tue Oct 27 to 10-28 (Tue-Wed) 2pm ET in 18 days
US midterm elections Whole book. VIX Nov-18 future already prices this at 20.03 vs 14.89 spot	Tue Nov 3 in 25 days
TTWO fiscal Q2 earnings Held 4 sh, GTA VI event hold. Last scheduled shot at a pre-order number before the 11/19 launch	Mon Nov 9 in 31 days